Calgary Real Estate Market Update : Sales Drop but Prices Rise – What It Means for You

The Calgary real estate market just experienced a 19% drop in sales compared to last year, but prices are still up. I’m breaking down what these contradictory signals mean for you and your family’s future.

Market Overview: Sales Down, Prices Up

Last month, Calgary saw 2,159 sales, a 19% drop from March 2023’s 2,658 sales. However, benchmark prices increased across most property types:

• Detached homes: +4%
• Semi-detached homes: +5%
• Townhomes/row homes: +2%
• Apartments: +3%

This conflicting data suggests Calgary families are navigating a transitioning market. Inventory is growing dramatically (up 102% year-over-year to 5,154 listings), yet prices continue to rise.

Inventory & Market Balance

Historically, Calgary’s balanced market occurs when inventory reaches 6,500–7,000 listings. A surge to 10,000+ would indicate a buyer’s market. Currently, we’re flirting with seller’s market conditions due to strong demand from population growth.

Key observations:

• Months of inventory: Holding steady at 2–2.5 months (seller’s market territory).
• Spring market delay: Sales growth hasn’t spiked as usual, likely due to economic uncertainty (tariffs, elections, interest rates). Expect a delayed spring surge in May–July.

Price Trends by Zone

Not all areas are equal. Year-over-year benchmark price changes:

• Declines: City Center (-1.8%), Northeast (-7%), North (-0.1%), East (-0.1%).
• Growth: Southeast (+8%), West (+1.8%), South (+1.2%), Northwest (+0.9%).

Apartments (especially in the 250K–250K–400K range) are shifting toward balanced conditions, while detached homes under $800K remain competitive.

Seller Realities: Pricing Matters

The list-to-sale price ratio has dipped to 98%, meaning sellers must price within 2–3% of expected value. Overpricing leads to expired listings—currently, 39% of active listings fail to sell, especially in:

• Northeast (76% off-market rate)
• City Center (50%)
• East (45%)

Most struggling properties are apartments (57% of expired listings).

Population Growth & Long-Term Outlook

Alberta’s population grew by 3.5% last year—the highest in Canada. Even with potential federal immigration caps, demand for housing will persist. Key takeaways:

1. Luxury market ($800K+): Moving toward balance, offering more negotiation power.
2. Entry-level homes (<$600K): Tight supply (except select condo segments).
3. Desirable school districts: Detached homes here resist broader slowdowns.

First-time buyers eyeing condos should prioritize well-managed buildings with strong financials.

Final Thoughts

Calgary’s market is in flux, but fundamentals remain strong. Sellers must price strategically, while buyers have opportunities in softening segments. Stay tuned for more updates as interest rates, elections, and economic policies unfold.